XRP is hovering at a critical inflection point as price presses directly against the 200-week EMA, a level that has historically separated prolonged bear phases from powerful cycle expansions. This isn’t just another short-term test; it’s a high-timeframe battleground that has defined XRP’s macro direction in prior cycles. With the price sitting right on this line, the next decisive move could set the tone for months to come, making this a pivotal moment that traders cannot afford to ignore.
Resistance Still Intact — Macro Plan Unchanged
In a recent XRP update, ChartNerd stressed that the market is at a pivotal macro moment. The 200-week EMA has historically served as a clear dividing line in XRP’s long-term structure, separating full-scale bear markets and extended accumulation phases from the beginning of new cycle expansions.
At present, XRP is trading at the moving average, hovering around the $1.41 level. This positioning places price at a technically decisive zone that has repeatedly dictated broader trend direction in previous cycles.
Looking back at historical behavior, decisive breakdowns below the 200-week EMA have often led to prolonged downside pressure or drawn-out accumulation periods before any meaningful recovery took shape. Losing this level convincingly could therefore signal a tougher macro environment ahead.
Conversely, when XRP has successfully defended the 200-week EMA, it has frequently acted as a springboard for multi-month reversals and strong upside expansions. As ChartNerd underscores, this is a genuine make-or-break moment that could define its trajectory for months to come.
A Defining Macro Crossroads For XRP
XRP has yet to break through resistance, meaning the broader macro plan remains firmly in place. CasiTrades pointed out that although price staged a bounce, it failed to clear the key resistance level, and importantly, it has not formed a new low either. As a result, the overall range structure persists, with no confirmed shift in trend.
The outlook only changes if one of two clear scenarios plays out. Either XRP drops into the lower support zones at $1.11 or $0.87, where deeper downside targets would come into focus, or it decisively breaks above the $1.67 resistance level, signaling strength and a potential structural reversal. Until one of those levels is breached, there is no reason to adjust the larger macro framework.
For now, price action is simply oscillating within the same established range. CasiTrades is closely monitoring for signs of increasing selling pressure that could develop into a clear Wave 3 down (subwave of 5). If that structure begins to form, it would align with expectations for another leg lower before any meaningful breakout attempt.
